SOUTH VIET NAM COPING WITH CAPRICORN IN BUSINESS, COUNT THE COSTS BEFORE YOU ACT . THE MOON NOW IN CAPRICORN SUGGESTS KEEPING PRACTICAL VALUES IN MIND . TOMORROW IS RATHER TOO ENERGETIC FOR COMFORT, BUT THAT MAY BE BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS ON THE MOVE . A LATE AUGUST HOROSCOPE SYNDICATED HOROSCOPES, MANY OF THEM FROM ABROAD, ARE POPULAR FEATURES IN MANY SOUTH VIETNAMESE NEWSPAPERS, BUT LAST WEEK THE GOVERNMENT BANNED THEM, PRESUMABLY ON THE THEORY THAT SOME STAR-MINDED DISSIDENT MIGHT BE MOVED TO TRY A COUP ON AN ASTROLOGICALLY AUSPICIOUS DAY . IN SOUTH VIET NAM EVERYBODY WAS INDEED ON THE MOVE, BUT WHERE THEY WERE MOVING WAS NO CLEARER THAN THE ZODIAC . THE U.S . WAS INCREASINGLY UNHAPPY WITH PRESIDENT NGO DINH DIEM (CAPRICORN), AND AFTER WHAT THE U.S . OFFICIALLY CALLED HIS " BRUTAL " CRACKDOWN ON THE BUDDHISTS, WASHINGTON OBVIOUSLY COULD NOT STRING ALONG WITH HIM AS IF NOTHING HAD HAPPENED . SO THE U.S . MADE NOISES DESIGNED TO ENCOURAGE OPPOSITION TO DIEM . BUT SOUTH VIET NAM BEING WHAT IT IS, POTENTIAL REBELS DID NOT WANT TO MOVE WITHOUT VIRTUALLY A WRITTEN CONTRACT FOR U.S . SUPPORT . MEANWHILE THE U.S . TRIED TO PLACE THE ODIUM OF THE CRACKDOWN ON DIEM'S BROTHER, NGO DINH NHU (LIBRA), AND NEW AMBASSADOR HENRY CABOT LODGE (CANCER) MANAGED TO SUGGEST, WITHOUT SAYING ANYTHING PUBLICLY, THAT HE DID NOT LIKE WHAT WAS GOING ON . THE SIEGE . A WEEK AFTER THE GOVERNMENT'S CRACKDOWN, SAIGON LOOKED LIKE A CITY UNDER SIEGE . HEAVILY ARMED SPECIAL FORCES UNITS GUARDED ALL KEY INSTALLATIONS . MOBILE " ANTI-SUICIDE ? ' SQUADS PATROLLED THE STREETS, READY TO DOUSE ANY FURTHER BUDDHIST ATTEMPTS AT SELF-IMMOLATION . AND ANTI-AIRCRAFT BATTERY WAS ROLLED INTO POSITION OUTSIDE SAIGON'S PRESIDENTIAL PALACE ; SINCE THE COMMUNIST VIET CONG HAVE NO PLANES, THE GOVERNMENT EVIDENTLY FEARED AN ATTACK FROM ITS OWN FORCE . HAVING JAILED MOST BUDDHIST LEADERS, THE REGIME MOVED TO SILENCE OTHER VOCAL OPPOSITION SAIGON'S SEETHING STUDENT POPULATION . IN THE CITY'S CROWDED MARKETPLACE AND NEAR SAIGON UNIVERSITY, RIFLE-TOTING COMBAT POLICE IN CAMOUFLAGE UNIFORMS ARRESTED ALL YOUTHS OF HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE AGE IN SIGHT AND MME . NHU DOES NOT REVEAL THE DAY OR MONTH OF HER BIRTH, BUT THERE IS SPECULATION THAT SHE MAY BE ARIES ( " VERY IMPORTANT TO WIN THE TEST OF WILLS " ) OR LEO ( " IF CROSSED, ROARS LIKE A LION, LACKS UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS IN THE MINDS OF OTHERS " ) . HAULED THEM OFF TO DETENTION CAMPS ON THE OUTSKIRTS . THROUGHOUT THE CITY, BLUE-UNIFORMED MEMBERS OF NHU'S REPUBLICAN YOUTH ORGANIZATION MADE DOOR-TO-DOOR CALLS, WARNING AGAINST PUBLIC CRITICISM OF THE GOVERNMENT ON PAIN OF ARREST . SCHOOLS WERE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, AND SCHEDULED ELECTIONS FOR THE NORMALLY RUBBER-STAMP, 123-MEMBER NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WERE POSTPONED . OVER RADIO SAIGON, THICH TINH KHIET, 80, HEAD OF THE GENERAL BUDDHIST ASSOCIATION, PLEDGED HIS LOYALTY TO THE GOVERNMENT, BUT A NEWSPAPER PICTURE CLEARED BY INATTENTIVE CENSORS SHOWED THE AGED MONK WITH A BLACK EYE AND BRUISES ALL OVER HIS FACE . THE GOVERNMENT EXPLAINED THAT HE HAD FALLEN DOWN . IN OTHER RESPECTS, CENSORSHIP WAS STRINGENT . IN OUTGOING CABLES FROM NEWSMEN, THE WORD CATHOLIC WAS BLUE-PENCILED ; AFTER PASSING THE CENSORS, ONE STORY REFERRED TO " ROMAN PRESIDENT NGO DINH DIEM . " THE GENERALS . AT WEEK'S END MARTIAL LAW WAS GRADUALLY EASED, AND SOME BUDDHISTS AND STUDENTS WERE FREED . THERE WAS LITTLE DOUBT THAT NHU WAS IN LARGE MEASURE RESPONSIBLE FOR RUNNING THINGS, BUT THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE THAT HE WAS SUPPLANTING HIS BROTHER ; AS FAR AS COULD BE DETECTED, THE TWO WERE WORKING IN HARMONY . DIRECTLY UNDER NHU, TWO OFFICERS SEEMED TO BE IN COMMAND : BESPECTACLED, POCKMARKED COLONEL LE QUANG TUNG, IN CHARGE OF THE SPECIAL FORCES, AND BRIGADIER GENERAL TON THAT DINH, COMMANDER OF THE III ARMY CORPS AND MILITARY GOVERNOR OF SAIGON, A DAPPER GRADUATE OF THE U.S . COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF SCHOOL AT FORT LEAVENWORTH, WHO WEARS A RED BERET, CARRIES A SWAGGER STICK, AND LIKES TO BE ACCOMPANIED ON MILITARY OPERATIONS BY HIS OWN PHOTOGRAPHER . OF SOUTH VIET NAM'S 17 GENERALS, DINH IS ONE OF TWO WHO ACTUALLY HAVE TROOPS AT THEIR DISPOSAL ; THE OTHER, BRIGADIER GENERAL NGUYEN KHANH, IS LOCATED IN A FIGHTING AREA HUNDREDS OF MILES NORTH OF SAIGON . MOST OF THE OTHER GENERALS HAVE BEEN DEPRIVED OF REAL POWER BY DIEM AND NHU, AND HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TO SAIGON WHERE THEY CAN BE WATCHED . AT A TIME WHEN THE ARMY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER IN THE SOUTH VIET NAM SITUATION, THESE OFFICERS ARE CAREFULLY SCRUTINIZED IN WASHINGTON . AMONG THEM : MAJOR GENERAL TRAN VAN DON, CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF AND TECHNICALLY IN CHARGE OF ADMINISTERING THE COUNTRY UNDER MARTIAL LAW . ACTUALLY HE COMMANDS ONLY A BODYGUARD OF 50 TROOPS, AND AT THE MOMENT IS CONSIDERED A FIGUREHEAD . BRIGADIER GENERAL TRAN TU OAI, AN ARTICULATE OFFICER WHOM NHU SIDETRACKED INTO THE POST OF DIRECTOR OF THE MALARIA ERADICATION PROGRAM . " I'M THE ONLY GENERAL IN THE ARMY, " SAID TRAN, / WHO IS ARMED WITH A SPRAY GUN . " HE IS NOW CHIEF OF PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE . MAJOR GENERAL DUONG VAN MINH, A TOUGH, HUSKY TYPE WHOSE MOUTH IS FILLED WITH GOLD-CAPPED BROKEN TEETH AND WHO IS REGARDED AS ONE OF THE BEST OFFICERS IN SOUTH VIET NAM . HE IS KNOWN AS " BIG " MINH, TO DISTINGUISH HIM FROM BRIGADIER GENERAL TRAN VAN MINH, OR " LITTLE " MINH, NO KIN . HE HAS NO COMMAND AT PRESENT, BUT SERVES AS DIEM'S " MILITARY ASSISTANT . " BRIGADIER GENERAL PHAM XUAN CHIEN, ONETIME DIRECTOR OF SECURITY SERVICES, WHO WAS SACKED BY NHU WHEN HIS AMBITIONS BEGAN TO GET OUT OF HAND . HE NOW HAS THE VIRTUALLY MEANINGLESS JOB OF ASSISTANT CHIEF OF STAFF . DETERMINED TO DISSOCIATE ITSELF FROM DIEM'S ANTI-BUDDHIST POLICIES AND TO KEEP THE ARMY ON ITS SIDE THE U.S . FORMALLY ABSOLVED SOUTH VIET NAM'S MILITARY LEADERS OF RESPONSIBILITY IN NHU'S SACKING OF THE BUDDHIST TEMPLES . IN AN UNUSUALLY SHARP STATEMENT, WASHINGTON SAID THAT THE GENERALS WERE " NOT AWARE OF THE PLANS TO ATTACK THE PAGODAS, MUCH LESS THE BRUTAL MANNER IN WHICH THEY WERE CARRIED OUT . " SAIGON BITTERLY DENIED THE WASHINGTON STATEMENT PRODUCED A DOCUMENT SIGNED BY ARMY LEADERS TO THE EFFECT THAT THEY HAD ASKED THE GOVERNMENT TO TAKE THE ACTION IT DID . " TOP U.S . INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS COUNTERED THAT ARMY LEADERS HAD BEEN COERCED INTO SIGNING THE DOCUMENT . THE ALTERNATIVE . IN A COUNTRY WHERE INTRIGUE AND DOUBLE-DEALING ARE ENDEMIC, THE ARMY OFFICERS ARE FAR FROM UNITED . BUT ONE TOP VIETNAMESE OFFICIAL SECRETLY IN CONTACT WITH ARMY DISSIDENTS MAINTAINS THAT A COUP CAN AND WILL BE STAGED, THAT BOTH THE MARINES AND THE AIR FORCE WOULD JOIN IN ANY UPRISING, AND THAT THERE ARE ENOUGH DISAFFECTED ARMY UNITS IN SAIGON ITSELF TO NEUTRALIZE TUNG'S SPECIAL FORCES . AT WEEK'S END THERE WERE MUFFLED REPORTS THAT, MEETING IN TWOS AND THREES, OFFICERS HAD AGREED ON A LEADER WHO WOULD BE WILLING TO KEEP DIEM AS TITULAR HEAD OF STATE IF NHU, HIS WIFE, AND BROTHER THUC, ARCHBISHOP OF HUE, WERE ELIMINATED . NO MATTER HOW REAL THE OPPOSITION TO DIEM, THE DISSIDENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY AFRAID THAT THE U.S . MIGHT NOT FULLY BACK THEM IN A COUP . AS A FIRST SIGN OF U.S . SUPPORT, THEY WANT WASHINGTON TO ANNOUNCE CESSATION OF AID TO THE DIEM REGIME . THIS THE U.S . IS NOT PREPARED TO DO BECAUSE IT WOULD ONLY SLASH WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE U.S . HAS IN SOUTH VIET NAM . BESIDES, THE U.S . BELIEVES THAT THE DIEM REGIME CAN KEEP GOING FOR PERHAPS A YEAR EVEN WITHOUT U.S . AID . IF THE OPPOSITION SEEMS TO BELIEVE THAT THE U.S . CANNOT BE COUNTED ON, THE U.S . RECIPROCATES THE FEELING . AS OF LAST WEEK, AT LEAST ONE MAJOR POLICYMAKER IN THE STATE DEPARTMENT FELT THAT THE SOLUTION WAS NOT TO TRY TO FORCE OUT DIEM BUT TO FORCE HIM INTO MORE ACCEPTABLE BEHAVIOR POSSIBLY CURBING BROTHER NHU AND TAKING OTHER MEASURES TO REDEEM HIMSELF WITH THE BUDDHISTS . CRITICS OF THIS POLICY POINT OUT THAT " CONTROLLING " DIEM HAS BEEN A U.S . AIM FOR YEARS, AND THAT NO ONE HAS YET MANAGED TO DO IT SUCCESSFULLY ; THEY ALSO BELIEVE THAT DIEM WILL NEVER REALLY BREAK WITH NHU OR ANY OTHER MEMBER OF HIS FAMILY . IN THEIR VIEW, DIEM IS NOW HOPELESSLY DISCREDITED, AND THEY URGE A DIFFERENT CIVILIAN RULER POSSIBLY VICE PRESIDENT NGUYEN NGOE THO, WHO HAS OPENLY DISAGREED WITH DIEM BACKED BY SOME EFFICIENT OFFICERS . JUST HOW THIS CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED IS ANOTHER QUESTION . THE WAR . AS IF THE SITUATION IN SAIGON WERE NOT COMPLICATED ENOUGH, FRANCE'S CHARLES DE GAULLE CHOSE TO ENTER IT WITH AN ORACULAR STATEMENT THAT FRANCE SYMPATHIZED WITH " THE TRIBULATIONS OF THE VIETNAMESE PEOPLE, " AND PLEDGED " CORDIAL COOPERATION " WITH " ALL VIET NAM " IN ROOTING OUT " FOREIGN INFLUENCE . " HE CONVENIENTLY OVERLOOKED THE FACT THAT, HAD IT NOT BEEN FOR FRANCE'S OWN DISASTROUS DEFEAT IN ITS NINE-YEAR VIETNAMESE WAR, THE COUNTRY WOULD NOT BE IN ITS PRESENT MESS . APART FROM DELIBERATELY ANTAGONIZING THE U.S . AT A MOMENT WHEN IT WAS CAUGHT IN AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT SITUATION, DE GAULLE SOUNDED AS IF HE WERE TRYING TO ENCOURAGE A UNITED VIET NAM, WITH NORTH AND SOUTH TOGETHER AGAIN BUT NEUTRALIZED . THE IDEA SEEMED TO BE SUPPORTED BY NONE OTHER THAN NORTH VIET NAM'S HO CHI MINH, WHO LAST WEEK GLOWINGLY PREDICTED DIEM'S FALL, BUT HINTED THAT HE MIGHT BE FOLLOWED BY A NEUTRALIZED, LAOS-TYPE GOVERNMENT . BY CONTRAST, CHINA'S MAO TSE-TUNG, WHO ALSO COMMENTED ON THE SOUTH VIET NAM SITUATION, SEEMED TO OPPOSE NEUTRALIZATION, AND PREDICTED THAT DIEM WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY JUST ANOTHER " U.S . LACKEY . " IN SAIGON, AMBASSADOR LODGE, THOUGH PLAINLY PLAYING FOR TIME, TOOK HOLD FIRMLY . IN TALKS WITH BOTH DIEM AND NHU (THE LATTER DESCRIBED AS " HOSTILE " BY INSIDERS), LODGE EXPRESSED THE U.S.'S SHARP DISAPPROVAL OF THEIR REPRESSIVE POLICIES . POINTEDLY HE REJECTED THE GOVERNMENT'S DEMAND THAT THE U.S . TURN OVER TWO BUDDHIST MONKS WHO WERE GIVEN SANCTUARY IN THE U.S . AID MISSION BUILDING . LODGE'S DETERMINATION NOT TO BE BUFFALOED IMPRESSED TOP EMBASSY AIDES . / I'M RUNNING THINGS HERE, AND I INTEND TO RUN THEM WITH A FIRM HAND, " HE TOLD STAFFERS . " IF WASHINGTON WANTS A WEASEL FOR THIS JOB, IT CAN FIND SOMEONE ELSE . " LODGE'S FIRST TASK IS TO SEE THAT THE POLITICAL MANEUVERING DOES NOT AFFECT THE CONDUCT OF THE WAR AGAINST THE COMMUNIST VIET CONG . AT LEAST ONE TROOP UNIT HAS BEEN MOVED FROM A FIGHTING ZONE INTO THE CAPITAL, AND OFFENSIVE MILITARY MISSIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED . BUT SO FAR, THE WAR AGAINST THE REDS HASN'T BEEN RADICALLY HURT BY EVENTS IN SAIGON .